* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 45 45 46 46 47 49 53 59 62 63 62 51 41 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 45 45 46 46 47 49 53 59 62 63 62 51 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 40 37 34 31 28 26 28 30 32 34 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 43 40 38 42 32 34 24 20 25 39 51 57 54 57 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -12 -3 -1 0 3 3 6 6 5 7 7 7 8 4 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 359 355 359 3 355 6 9 18 8 330 269 247 233 241 250 246 241 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 154 155 154 156 156 150 143 147 141 133 125 122 118 111 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 131 131 128 132 133 128 122 124 119 112 106 104 100 95 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 40 43 51 54 50 49 44 39 34 23 21 19 20 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 17 20 21 21 22 22 21 23 27 31 38 43 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 0 17 15 14 30 18 84 124 147 154 147 146 132 113 82 -6 19 200 MB DIV -14 -10 21 47 28 14 10 16 6 22 4 15 -3 -22 -7 11 22 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 -4 11 16 13 12 4 4 0 -9 -16 -11 -24 -41 LAND (KM) 899 854 805 778 752 759 818 884 982 1086 1030 955 977 964 935 972 963 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.9 26.8 27.9 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.2 65.1 65.1 65.0 65.3 65.6 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.7 66.5 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 1 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 38 39 41 40 37 36 35 29 19 12 5 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -15. -20. -23. -24. -26. -28. -32. -39. -44. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 10. 15. 22. 27. 20. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 3. 9. 12. 13. 12. 1. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.6 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 44 45 45 46 46 47 49 53 59 62 63 62 51 41 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 47 47 48 48 49 51 55 61 64 65 64 53 43 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 46 46 47 47 48 50 54 60 63 64 63 52 42 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 41 42 42 43 45 49 55 58 59 58 47 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT