* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 86 78 63 49 30 21 20 22 25 27 28 31 33 29 V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 86 78 63 49 30 21 20 22 25 27 28 31 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 90 82 75 64 54 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 29 28 30 45 41 44 40 32 28 27 23 26 27 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 -1 1 9 4 3 0 -2 -1 1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 226 225 240 240 224 245 244 239 239 231 217 222 215 234 232 254 269 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.4 27.3 28.3 28.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 126 121 117 126 139 135 148 149 149 152 153 153 155 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 107 103 99 105 115 112 125 128 126 127 127 127 129 129 128 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -53.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 4 0 1 0 3 4 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 58 54 46 35 26 21 25 31 39 42 40 38 38 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 33 31 27 19 16 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 64 54 56 72 63 75 100 69 105 136 131 112 46 9 8 -20 -62 200 MB DIV 58 67 87 115 95 80 50 -30 -34 15 24 22 -13 -12 -5 -23 -33 700-850 TADV 13 13 17 6 -6 -9 -26 -15 -10 -9 -6 0 1 0 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 47 88 70 60 31 89 218 326 472 545 460 402 352 302 253 203 154 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.6 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.3 32.9 32.2 30.8 28.9 27.7 27.1 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.6 80.4 79.8 79.2 77.4 75.8 74.8 74.6 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 11 5 1 8 37 20 28 37 42 44 45 45 45 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -26. -32. -36. -39. -41. -43. -45. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -28. -30. -30. -28. -24. -21. -18. -15. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -23. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. -41. -40. -38. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -22. -37. -51. -70. -79. -80. -78. -75. -73. -72. -69. -67. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.7 80.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 12( 31) 6( 35) 0( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 91 86 78 63 49 30 21 20 22 25 27 28 31 33 29 18HR AGO 100 99 94 89 81 66 52 33 24 23 25 28 30 31 34 36 32 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 83 68 54 35 26 25 27 30 32 33 36 38 34 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 82 67 53 34 25 24 26 29 31 32 35 37 33 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 66 52 33 24 23 25 28 30 31 34 36 32 IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 69 55 36 27 26 28 31 33 34 37 39 35 IN 12HR 100 96 91 82 76 72 58 39 30 29 31 34 36 37 40 42 38