* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 69 67 64 59 55 52 47 42 39 43 42 44 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 70 71 69 67 64 59 55 52 47 42 39 43 42 44 44 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 71 69 65 60 53 46 38 33 30 28 29 32 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 26 32 37 33 42 45 49 43 39 22 19 27 28 31 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -9 -10 2 0 0 0 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 352 345 351 353 349 346 352 3 21 19 11 359 315 282 270 239 226 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 136 135 133 135 139 144 144 142 140 143 146 140 135 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 113 111 109 113 116 119 120 119 118 120 121 115 110 105 101 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 56 53 46 44 48 48 52 53 62 65 66 71 69 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 16 15 17 16 17 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -108 -98 -68 -43 -33 -2 0 14 -1 29 35 34 39 46 46 82 95 200 MB DIV -13 6 -22 -22 -24 -23 -32 -16 -4 -26 2 11 15 45 75 93 43 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 2 0 -1 -5 -8 -6 -6 -7 -7 -1 1 5 7 -7 LAND (KM) 910 951 986 995 1005 997 954 917 918 937 994 1085 1079 986 923 893 864 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.9 28.9 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.9 65.1 65.1 65.1 64.8 64.7 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.0 66.3 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 1 0 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 21 20 19 19 22 29 29 30 31 27 25 21 19 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -30. -31. -30. -28. -27. -27. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -0. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -23. -28. -31. -27. -27. -26. -26. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.6 64.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 69 67 64 59 55 52 47 42 39 43 42 44 44 43 41 18HR AGO 70 69 67 65 62 57 53 50 45 40 37 41 40 42 42 41 39 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 61 56 52 49 44 39 36 40 39 41 41 40 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 52 48 45 40 35 32 36 35 37 37 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT