* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 109 111 110 107 103 96 87 74 61 55 51 49 48 48 45 V (KT) LAND 105 106 109 111 110 107 103 96 87 74 61 55 51 49 48 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 105 106 108 109 108 103 96 86 73 61 49 41 36 32 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 10 13 21 24 33 37 42 42 39 32 29 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 4 -1 2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 315 305 271 266 260 228 231 226 249 243 246 246 260 255 270 255 251 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 164 162 145 138 140 142 136 135 143 144 146 150 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 150 147 144 125 117 116 117 113 111 118 118 120 123 126 130 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 6 6 4 4 1 1 1 4 5 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 71 73 65 55 43 40 38 44 47 53 56 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 32 30 32 35 33 31 25 20 17 15 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 68 64 52 64 51 63 52 91 68 49 13 1 -20 10 -4 200 MB DIV 16 26 40 34 21 61 70 97 58 24 3 8 7 50 73 57 25 700-850 TADV 13 14 9 4 11 19 18 -2 4 -16 -2 0 4 1 9 4 2 LAND (KM) 237 284 191 113 60 38 124 131 183 263 383 489 571 634 682 686 673 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.4 27.3 29.1 30.7 31.8 32.3 32.1 31.6 30.9 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.5 78.3 79.0 79.6 80.5 80.2 79.0 77.6 76.2 74.9 74.0 73.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 57 59 57 50 46 25 25 24 25 34 19 29 33 34 38 42 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -0. -8. -16. -23. -30. -35. -38. -42. -45. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 4. 1. -8. -16. -21. -24. -25. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. -9. -18. -31. -44. -50. -54. -56. -57. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.8 76.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.7% 11.9% 9.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 19.4% 12.1% 10.3% 9.1% 9.8% 5.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.7% 18.2% 4.7% 5.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 18.1% 9.6% 8.2% 5.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 29( 63) 27( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 50 36( 68) 35( 79) 5( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 109 111 110 107 103 96 87 74 61 55 51 49 48 48 45 18HR AGO 105 104 107 109 108 105 101 94 85 72 59 53 49 47 46 46 43 12HR AGO 105 102 101 103 102 99 95 88 79 66 53 47 43 41 40 40 37 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 91 87 80 71 58 45 39 35 33 32 32 29 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 83 79 72 63 50 37 31 27 25 24 24 21 IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 85 81 74 65 52 39 33 29 27 26 26 23 IN 12HR 105 106 109 100 94 90 86 79 70 57 44 38 34 32 31 31 28