* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 41 41 40 40 39 34 28 24 22 20 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 41 41 40 40 39 34 28 24 22 20 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 43 41 39 37 37 36 35 30 25 21 20 20 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 29 26 26 29 32 30 32 45 41 48 40 32 20 28 47 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -1 -8 -5 -1 -6 0 -1 1 -5 -5 7 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 339 350 356 354 355 358 350 348 342 356 13 24 20 332 288 267 274 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 149 145 134 134 138 140 140 139 137 132 126 123 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 130 130 125 112 111 115 116 116 116 115 111 105 102 99 98 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 56 56 57 57 51 48 47 48 50 56 59 54 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 9 10 11 13 16 15 13 12 12 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -88 -97 -92 -104 -108 -40 -6 3 -10 -43 -55 -35 -26 -12 16 18 200 MB DIV -26 -34 -23 -7 -6 3 -12 16 -20 4 -63 -15 0 41 2 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 2 0 1 0 5 0 7 -1 2 0 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 789 810 841 884 934 1034 1081 1079 1094 1108 1160 1261 1380 1322 1234 1148 1055 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.4 29.3 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.0 64.5 64.3 63.8 63.2 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 4 2 2 3 2 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 47 39 29 16 16 18 19 21 22 21 15 10 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. -41. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -11. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.3 61.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 43 41 41 40 40 39 34 28 24 22 20 19 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 41 41 40 40 39 34 28 24 22 20 19 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 39 39 38 38 37 32 26 22 20 18 17 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 33 32 32 31 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT