* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 129 129 127 118 114 108 113 107 105 103 94 84 80 74 65 V (KT) LAND 125 126 115 127 126 115 112 106 111 104 103 101 92 81 78 72 63 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 126 124 120 113 112 111 108 100 91 84 71 61 56 51 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 9 7 14 14 13 15 21 27 21 23 25 40 59 90 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 9 6 8 7 -3 0 -3 -2 -5 -1 1 -1 -1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 312 327 292 5 2 327 312 296 267 259 248 250 253 270 236 233 219 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.1 29.6 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.1 29.4 29.0 27.7 24.9 26.9 22.1 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 171 171 171 162 166 171 168 164 153 158 152 133 105 124 88 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 163 168 160 150 153 156 151 144 133 135 129 114 91 105 78 67 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -49.0 -48.0 -46.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 75 75 77 79 79 80 80 75 71 64 49 30 30 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 31 30 31 30 33 32 37 37 40 42 39 35 35 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 104 95 99 101 99 71 93 82 89 59 65 53 100 152 153 190 202 200 MB DIV 121 126 165 171 95 77 112 51 72 79 82 90 80 73 38 54 10 700-850 TADV 8 9 9 12 14 19 10 1 11 26 25 23 22 1 -46 -54 -86 LAND (KM) 177 86 -4 65 6 108 246 310 193 211 269 167 90 85 206 157 98 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.0 21.8 23.5 25.1 26.8 28.6 30.3 32.1 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.6 74.5 74.4 74.4 74.4 75.0 76.0 77.2 78.1 78.5 78.5 78.0 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 87 84 90 88 78 106 67 66 57 41 53 34 11 0 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -18. -25. -33. -39. -43. -48. -55. -60. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 11. 8. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -2. 0. -2. 5. 4. 7. 9. 4. -2. -3. -2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 4. 2. -7. -11. -17. -12. -18. -20. -22. -31. -41. -45. -51. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.6 74.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 85.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.58 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.90 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.82 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 33.6% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 16.9% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 3.5% 3.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 7.7% 16.0% 5.8% 3.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 12.5% 22.1% 13.8% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 40( 63) 31( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 94( 98) 97(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 115 127 126 115 112 106 111 104 103 101 92 81 78 72 63 18HR AGO 125 124 113 125 124 113 110 104 109 102 101 99 90 79 76 70 61 12HR AGO 125 122 121 133 132 121 118 112 117 110 109 107 98 87 84 78 69 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 103 100 94 99 92 91 89 80 69 66 60 51 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 95 92 86 91 84 83 81 72 61 58 52 43 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 103 100 94 99 92 91 89 80 69 66 60 51 IN 12HR 125 126 115 106 100 96 93 87 92 85 84 82 73 62 59 53 44