* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 124 125 122 113 108 107 109 106 109 104 95 87 83 81 77 V (KT) LAND 120 122 124 125 122 110 105 104 106 103 106 101 92 84 80 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 123 123 119 107 104 106 106 101 96 86 72 64 59 54 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 4 7 9 14 14 12 17 18 25 23 31 35 54 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 13 12 8 1 0 -2 0 0 3 -1 4 13 9 5 SHEAR DIR 308 306 293 335 2 339 348 301 310 277 263 262 259 285 239 232 223 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 165 171 171 168 163 167 169 161 159 160 140 147 148 138 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 159 166 166 158 150 152 150 142 139 137 118 122 123 115 109 109 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 8 6 5 3 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 72 75 76 77 80 78 77 71 65 47 20 13 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 30 27 29 30 34 34 39 41 38 34 35 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 111 112 104 106 103 81 77 72 88 53 50 38 71 106 132 15 21 200 MB DIV 135 112 126 149 135 53 92 67 61 49 92 81 70 20 -5 18 -18 700-850 TADV 5 7 6 15 17 12 15 9 5 27 31 30 22 22 -34 -120 -162 LAND (KM) 252 165 69 34 51 87 221 331 333 279 324 323 241 198 202 328 429 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.5 21.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 27.4 29.1 30.8 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.7 74.6 74.6 74.8 75.4 76.2 76.8 77.3 77.4 77.2 76.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 88 89 87 94 86 108 75 62 57 52 53 35 35 32 22 43 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -16. -22. -29. -34. -38. -43. -47. -51. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 8. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -3. 1. 1. 7. 8. 3. -2. -2. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 2. -7. -12. -13. -11. -14. -11. -16. -25. -33. -37. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.9 74.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.85 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.60 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.81 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.80 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 34.0% 28.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.0% 18.8% 8.0% 6.5% 5.2% 3.2% 3.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 10.3% 25.5% 8.6% 4.8% 6.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 13.2% 26.1% 15.1% 3.8% 4.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 36( 57) 34( 72) 29( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 91 88( 99) 94(100) 97(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 124 125 122 110 105 104 106 103 106 101 92 84 80 78 74 18HR AGO 120 119 121 122 119 107 102 101 103 100 103 98 89 81 77 75 71 12HR AGO 120 117 116 117 114 102 97 96 98 95 98 93 84 76 72 70 66 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 95 90 89 91 88 91 86 77 69 65 63 59 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 89 84 83 85 82 85 80 71 63 59 57 53 IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 97 92 91 93 90 93 88 79 71 67 65 61 IN 12HR 120 122 124 115 109 105 100 99 101 98 101 96 87 79 75 73 69