* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 121 122 120 114 106 104 107 108 110 113 110 105 101 100 81 V (KT) LAND 120 119 121 122 120 98 101 100 103 104 106 109 106 101 97 96 77 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 118 118 117 96 102 106 107 103 100 98 87 79 75 62 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 4 9 10 11 14 12 13 16 20 20 24 44 63 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 10 11 9 5 -1 3 -2 0 3 0 10 16 10 4 SHEAR DIR 312 342 347 317 330 346 320 311 317 284 280 251 247 255 251 227 230 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.2 28.9 28.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 159 165 171 171 161 165 167 165 159 161 151 138 149 141 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 151 157 165 165 149 151 151 147 139 138 129 116 124 117 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -49.4 -49.8 -48.6 -48.0 -48.0 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 2 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 72 75 75 74 74 72 68 63 55 44 19 9 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 29 28 27 29 33 35 38 42 45 45 46 51 41 850 MB ENV VOR 113 116 115 111 116 113 92 112 97 106 83 84 101 148 182 13 -13 200 MB DIV 125 132 74 85 113 103 65 97 56 82 82 70 68 32 12 -19 -11 700-850 TADV 6 9 10 11 21 19 14 9 6 13 20 15 10 0 -2 -97 -127 LAND (KM) 300 230 155 64 31 -4 127 276 402 343 345 390 319 238 189 261 410 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.6 20.4 22.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.8 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.7 74.6 74.7 75.0 75.6 76.1 76.6 76.9 76.9 76.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 70 91 88 88 94 87 100 66 60 54 56 45 27 35 26 21 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -42. -47. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 9. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -4. -0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 11. 12. 15. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. -0. -6. -14. -16. -13. -12. -10. -7. -10. -15. -19. -20. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.4 74.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.59 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.67 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 10.5% 4.9% 5.1% 4.6% 2.8% 1.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 4.4% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 6.7% 11.2% 7.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 33( 70) 0( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 85( 94) 79( 99) 0( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 119 121 122 120 98 101 100 103 104 106 109 106 101 97 96 77 18HR AGO 120 119 121 122 120 98 101 100 103 104 106 109 106 101 97 96 77 12HR AGO 120 117 116 117 115 93 96 95 98 99 101 104 101 96 92 91 72 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 108 86 89 88 91 92 94 97 94 89 85 84 65 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 79 82 81 84 85 87 90 87 82 78 77 58 IN 6HR 120 119 110 104 101 80 83 82 85 86 88 91 88 83 79 78 59 IN 12HR 120 119 121 112 106 102 105 104 107 108 110 113 110 105 101 100 81