* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 121 121 121 123 118 112 112 114 114 115 111 111 102 101 88 V (KT) LAND 125 123 121 121 121 123 118 103 104 106 105 107 103 103 94 92 80 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 116 113 112 115 115 104 108 111 111 106 101 94 83 73 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 8 7 1 7 8 10 10 13 12 11 18 29 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 2 1 4 7 4 3 -1 2 3 5 5 5 10 7 SHEAR DIR 267 259 232 234 274 43 297 341 302 296 305 278 272 258 252 240 254 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.0 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 152 155 169 168 165 167 169 168 164 163 149 136 145 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 142 147 160 158 152 151 149 146 142 140 126 115 121 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 -49.4 -49.4 -49.1 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 72 72 69 73 76 78 78 77 74 64 44 22 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 25 28 29 32 31 29 31 35 37 40 40 44 42 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR 95 92 97 100 109 114 111 121 108 115 100 112 105 113 126 -9 -53 200 MB DIV 117 105 61 65 105 174 116 83 93 104 61 84 77 92 26 2 -14 700-850 TADV 7 8 6 7 8 4 12 10 11 7 10 21 18 14 5 -20 -4 LAND (KM) 312 369 345 284 225 64 30 83 237 377 421 383 396 419 308 221 173 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.8 19.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 26.0 27.2 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.6 74.8 74.8 74.9 74.8 74.8 75.0 75.2 75.5 75.9 76.2 76.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 45 53 62 68 81 83 112 78 64 62 59 64 42 25 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -28. -34. -39. -42. -45. -50. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 10. 14. 10. 11. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -7. -13. -13. -11. -11. -10. -14. -14. -23. -24. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.0 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 9.9% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 34( 73) 35( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 99 97(100) 88(100) 95(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 123 121 121 121 123 118 103 104 106 105 107 103 103 94 92 80 18HR AGO 125 124 122 122 122 124 119 104 105 107 106 108 104 104 95 93 81 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 121 123 118 103 104 106 105 107 103 103 94 92 80 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 117 112 97 98 100 99 101 97 97 88 86 74 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 108 103 88 89 91 90 92 88 88 79 77 65 IN 6HR 125 123 114 108 105 106 101 86 87 89 88 90 86 86 77 75 63 IN 12HR 125 123 121 112 106 102 97 82 83 85 84 86 82 82 73 71 59