* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 133 125 118 113 111 118 115 108 103 102 108 110 111 108 104 V (KT) LAND 140 139 133 125 118 113 111 118 100 82 77 76 82 84 85 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 132 124 118 113 117 124 123 93 98 103 108 108 107 101 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 13 14 13 7 6 3 5 7 8 5 8 9 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 2 0 3 0 1 2 9 6 2 1 0 3 3 10 SHEAR DIR 251 260 264 253 253 281 223 236 223 306 274 307 302 320 298 327 305 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 151 153 159 169 171 171 169 169 170 167 164 162 162 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 142 143 146 152 161 165 167 156 151 148 142 138 135 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.6 -49.1 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 72 73 75 76 75 74 74 73 76 78 79 78 76 73 67 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 23 26 26 34 33 31 33 34 39 42 45 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR 88 99 103 106 100 101 103 111 119 130 143 152 133 131 118 128 118 200 MB DIV 60 75 77 91 97 118 116 140 88 92 45 119 57 81 58 57 17 700-850 TADV 11 9 7 4 7 11 9 9 9 20 14 10 9 9 13 14 15 LAND (KM) 124 177 232 288 324 294 126 29 -11 92 254 381 370 362 364 373 391 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.2 20.0 22.0 23.7 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.1 73.6 74.1 74.5 75.3 75.9 76.1 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.3 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 33 36 55 71 83 83 79 67 66 64 63 61 60 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -11. -19. -30. -39. -46. -52. -55. -59. -64. -67. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -14. -16. -17. -11. -4. 2. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. 1. 0. 9. 8. 5. 6. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -7. -15. -22. -27. -29. -22. -25. -32. -37. -38. -32. -30. -29. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.3 72.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.3% 18.2% 9.3% 6.3% 4.1% 4.4% 3.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 6.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 6.4% 3.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 46( 75) 32( 83) 30( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 48( 55) 91( 96) 91(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 139 133 125 118 113 111 118 100 82 77 76 82 84 85 82 78 18HR AGO 140 139 133 125 118 113 111 118 100 82 77 76 82 84 85 82 78 12HR AGO 140 137 136 128 121 116 114 121 103 85 80 79 85 87 88 85 81 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 123 118 116 123 105 87 82 81 87 89 90 87 83 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 116 114 121 103 85 80 79 85 87 88 85 81 IN 6HR 140 139 130 124 121 119 117 124 106 88 83 82 88 90 91 88 84 IN 12HR 140 139 133 124 118 114 112 119 101 83 78 77 83 85 86 83 79