* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 60 50 42 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 60 50 42 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 59 51 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 14 20 31 34 44 53 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 2 0 -3 -3 -3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 245 239 247 250 250 256 259 281 279 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 140 136 129 132 132 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 43 45 46 45 46 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 10 9 9 10 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -24 -10 -8 -8 0 0 -8 -6 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 53 34 27 17 -3 -1 3 -18 -15 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 4 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1805 1785 1766 1732 1698 1606 1469 1325 1146 937 743 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 138.8 138.8 139.0 139.2 139.9 141.1 142.4 144.1 146.1 148.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 17 19 13 5 6 7 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -24. -30. -33. -34. -35. -36. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -5. -15. -23. -35. -45. -54. -62. -66. -68. -67. -66. -63. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.1 138.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.41 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.26 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 -2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.6% 23.8% 23.3% 19.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 6.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##