* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 56 54 50 44 37 32 26 21 18 20 21 21 22 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 56 54 50 44 37 32 26 21 18 20 21 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 55 55 52 47 41 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 5 9 9 19 27 33 38 37 41 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 302 321 285 271 254 271 265 262 262 277 281 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 138 138 138 140 139 136 137 135 136 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 43 44 47 49 49 51 52 55 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -8 -2 -14 -3 -2 11 7 0 -7 -20 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 76 87 80 61 52 35 17 10 7 -8 -19 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 1 0 -1 1 3 5 2 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1758 1756 1756 1761 1767 1740 1684 1593 1468 1315 1138 966 793 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.0 139.8 139.6 139.3 139.2 139.5 140.2 141.3 142.7 144.4 146.1 147.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 16 13 12 12 15 19 19 13 12 14 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -22. -22. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 5. -1. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -25. -24. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.2 140.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 48.7% 29.3% 21.1% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 28.9% 33.0% 16.6% 16.4% 2.4% 0.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 26.8% 6.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 20.4% 28.0% 22.0% 13.1% 10.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##