* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 27 27 30 35 40 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 235 233 243 249 257 264 271 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 129 123 115 112 109 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 35 34 34 34 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 3 -2 0 7 19 21 7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -21 -10 -5 -1 -1 10 -23 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 4 5 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1004 929 855 789 723 633 612 608 588 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 117.6 117.2 117.0 116.8 117.0 117.6 118.3 119.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -30. -35. -38. -39. -40. -42. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -30. -42. -53. -59. -63. -66. -67. -68. -68. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##