* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192016 09/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 41 43 44 43 37 32 27 22 24 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 41 43 44 43 37 32 27 22 24 25 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 31 29 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 8 4 6 9 15 20 28 33 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 1 5 6 6 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 285 293 299 325 269 266 268 261 261 255 273 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 142 141 141 141 140 136 139 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 46 44 42 42 43 47 51 52 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 0 -3 -4 6 12 21 9 4 0 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 72 73 81 91 58 66 49 18 7 8 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 4 3 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1783 1765 1748 1751 1756 1754 1719 1674 1597 1493 1363 1206 1053 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.3 140.3 140.2 140.0 139.7 139.3 139.3 139.5 140.1 141.0 142.2 143.7 145.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 20 16 14 15 18 21 20 13 12 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 7. 2. -3. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 NINETEEN 09/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.11 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 23.6% 20.9% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 15.9% 12.1% 5.5% 5.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 13.3% 11.1% 7.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 NINETEEN 09/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##