* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 32 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 32 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 34 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 24 28 31 33 33 33 34 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 6 5 1 0 0 3 5 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 244 226 233 244 249 262 261 272 274 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 126 127 127 125 116 113 110 101 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 39 39 37 38 32 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 15 19 14 12 24 10 -6 -19 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 30 -3 -8 -6 7 14 -2 -21 -64 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 4 9 9 12 13 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1160 1109 1059 993 926 786 679 624 603 560 547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.0 23.0 24.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.3 119.0 118.7 118.3 117.6 117.4 117.6 118.1 118.8 119.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -18. -25. -33. -35. -36. -37. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -25. -34. -42. -50. -52. -53. -54. -54. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##