* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182016 09/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 34 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 34 32 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 20 22 29 32 34 39 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 8 6 -2 1 4 2 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 245 231 241 246 249 263 261 273 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.2 25.0 24.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 126 128 127 123 114 111 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 38 38 39 39 37 31 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 16 14 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 20 14 13 5 16 21 20 -3 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 62 46 14 7 2 10 16 -9 -20 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 7 14 13 14 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1186 1145 1105 1055 1005 871 746 650 615 570 536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.7 22.8 23.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.5 119.3 119.0 118.7 118.1 117.7 117.7 118.0 118.7 119.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -16. -24. -31. -33. -34. -35. -36. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -28. -38. -45. -46. -47. -47. -48. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##