* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182016 09/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 30 28 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 30 28 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 15 14 22 22 34 28 29 25 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 8 8 8 4 2 -1 4 6 8 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 250 240 250 240 234 225 228 238 232 266 265 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.0 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.8 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 129 127 127 128 128 122 114 112 103 98 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 42 42 40 38 39 35 32 29 32 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 20 21 16 15 11 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 15 18 25 22 24 27 28 13 -1 -14 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 59 83 76 70 15 -4 -3 1 -6 -2 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 1 0 5 9 11 9 10 8 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1248 1206 1164 1131 1098 981 839 716 633 606 574 565 564 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.2 19.4 20.6 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.3 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.5 119.4 119.3 119.2 118.6 118.0 117.6 117.5 117.8 118.4 119.1 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 16. 15. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. -0. -2. -8. -13. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -6. -10. -18. -25. -30. -35. -35. -36. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 119.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.3% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.6% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 EIGHTEEN 09/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##