* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 33 30 23 17 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 1 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 257 262 279 298 327 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 119 119 122 126 127 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 108 107 109 112 112 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 31 28 29 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -56 -73 -92 -108 -146 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -30 -17 -28 -27 9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 15 16 14 10 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2107 2211 2314 2404 2495 2325 2092 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.9 27.7 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.4 39.4 40.3 41.1 42.1 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 6 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.5 37.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT