* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 67 72 78 66 46 43 39 35 30 26 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 67 72 78 66 46 43 39 35 30 26 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 63 67 75 77 59 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 5 9 24 45 61 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 4 3 4 12 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 143 160 192 189 240 224 236 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.5 19.7 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 145 140 135 128 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 136 128 127 130 124 83 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 59 57 44 38 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 24 26 31 26 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 7 6 9 64 93 156 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 66 83 67 87 45 92 87 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 2 13 -21 35 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1068 1172 1194 1227 1235 1155 847 1027 1424 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.2 30.2 31.3 32.3 35.2 39.6 45.0 50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 64.7 64.7 63.6 62.5 57.4 49.3 40.0 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 20 33 41 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 30 30 27 23 9 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -5. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 10. 5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 22. 28. 16. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 64.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.48 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 33.7% 22.5% 9.7% 6.2% 11.3% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 41.4% 28.4% 8.4% 2.8% 6.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 25.5% 17.2% 6.1% 3.0% 5.8% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 63 67 72 78 66 46 43 39 35 30 26 24 23 23 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 66 72 60 40 37 33 29 24 20 18 17 17 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 59 65 53 33 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 49 55 43 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT