* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 61 72 78 77 61 50 37 30 26 25 25 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 61 72 78 77 61 50 37 30 26 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 52 60 67 65 51 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 12 8 7 3 10 29 57 76 76 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 5 5 13 14 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 122 126 147 160 128 287 229 256 240 226 216 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.9 27.8 26.6 26.1 21.5 17.3 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 167 166 162 158 151 137 125 121 91 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 152 149 143 138 133 123 115 111 84 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 58 57 59 55 51 35 32 37 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 21 23 26 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 30 32 10 -3 -4 24 48 112 47 82 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 21 29 24 23 78 50 69 44 36 0 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 5 2 4 2 3 11 32 -61 -165 -10 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 812 812 832 890 960 1161 1326 1286 1198 937 905 1221 1434 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.1 26.9 28.8 30.8 32.8 35.3 38.6 42.1 45.8 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.3 62.4 63.1 63.8 64.1 62.7 59.9 55.6 49.9 43.7 37.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 10 13 19 25 29 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 45 59 57 40 31 39 18 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 2. -10. -23. -35. -42. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 31. 42. 48. 47. 31. 20. 7. -0. -4. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.5 60.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.8% 9.8% 6.6% 3.6% 8.7% 12.9% 17.7% Logistic: 5.4% 18.8% 13.5% 7.8% 2.7% 9.7% 16.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.5% 8.2% 4.8% 2.1% 6.2% 10.3% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 51 61 72 78 77 61 50 37 30 26 25 25 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 48 58 69 75 74 58 47 34 27 23 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 42 52 63 69 68 52 41 28 21 17 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 43 54 60 59 43 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT