* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 50 49 44 42 41 38 36 34 32 34 34 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 50 49 44 42 41 38 36 34 32 34 34 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 49 47 44 42 39 36 34 34 36 38 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 20 19 22 29 32 29 19 9 16 17 7 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 4 4 0 0 -3 2 -1 -1 1 -2 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 253 246 252 253 245 250 246 260 262 318 26 71 255 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.2 26.4 25.4 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 120 124 125 128 127 119 109 104 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 109 109 109 109 109 108 111 112 113 111 103 94 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 55 56 55 50 44 38 32 31 29 42 51 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 17 14 14 14 12 10 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 81 76 64 54 50 40 19 -19 -48 -95 -126 -44 -24 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 47 66 56 67 49 1 2 7 -25 -26 -1 12 80 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 5 9 9 3 3 5 3 0 8 1 -5 30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1563 1638 1715 1782 1841 1960 2104 2259 2405 2541 2307 2064 1819 1591 1388 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 20.0 21.4 22.9 24.3 25.8 27.7 29.9 32.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.9 32.5 33.2 33.8 34.5 35.8 37.3 38.9 40.3 41.6 42.6 43.0 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 3 3 6 3 3 8 8 7 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -11. -11. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 31.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.2% 9.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 6.2% 2.8% 2.1% 0.9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.9% 4.2% 3.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.9% 0.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 49 50 49 44 42 41 38 36 34 32 34 34 35 34 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 47 46 41 39 38 35 33 31 29 31 31 32 31 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 41 36 34 33 30 28 26 24 26 26 27 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 30 28 27 24 22 20 18 20 20 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT