* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 33 39 46 52 56 61 68 72 62 42 26 25 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 33 39 46 52 56 61 68 72 62 42 26 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 33 37 41 45 50 59 64 57 43 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 13 13 14 9 13 2 2 22 36 66 84 78 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 1 0 4 5 11 17 22 27 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 178 167 133 129 118 107 83 108 357 303 245 232 226 209 220 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.1 26.9 23.7 19.5 14.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 158 162 161 166 161 155 151 143 130 129 101 83 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 144 151 153 150 150 141 135 133 129 120 119 93 77 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 62 63 65 61 62 58 54 41 35 37 36 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 15 15 16 15 16 18 21 20 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 40 49 41 39 20 5 -6 2 30 44 49 69 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 3 32 46 15 32 18 54 27 67 68 99 35 32 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 1 3 3 0 0 0 4 -2 6 -7 3 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 933 836 757 704 685 732 868 1042 1250 1399 1297 1070 899 1014 1302 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.8 29.5 31.5 34.1 37.2 40.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.1 59.3 60.5 61.7 63.6 64.6 64.7 63.4 60.7 56.5 51.0 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 10 8 9 13 18 25 27 27 27 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 32 46 78 81 60 47 34 33 22 12 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. -8. -22. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 1. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 22. 26. 31. 38. 42. 32. 12. -4. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.2% 10.0% 7.5% 4.6% 9.0% 10.5% 15.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.1% 2.4% 2.3% 0.7% 5.0% 4.1% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 4.7% 4.9% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 33 39 46 52 56 61 68 72 62 42 26 25 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 39 46 52 56 61 68 72 62 42 26 25 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 35 42 48 52 57 64 68 58 38 22 21 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 41 45 50 57 61 51 31 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT