* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 52 62 70 77 86 94 88 65 68 67 66 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 52 62 70 77 86 94 88 65 68 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 41 48 58 66 74 85 92 79 59 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 8 11 5 7 7 9 2 11 31 60 68 77 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 -3 0 2 7 8 11 18 23 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 187 197 183 143 145 113 83 96 244 216 221 221 205 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.3 29.0 29.2 28.1 26.9 26.1 22.4 16.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 153 161 161 164 156 151 156 141 128 121 95 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 132 143 151 148 146 136 130 138 129 119 112 88 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 60 61 63 61 61 56 52 39 37 39 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 16 18 20 21 25 30 30 21 35 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 43 38 42 35 37 20 6 9 36 80 128 139 77 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 4 0 16 36 19 40 31 63 46 94 101 64 44 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 26 1 -59 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1170 1061 959 877 810 765 813 917 1078 1279 1330 1223 948 793 1063 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.3 23.9 25.3 26.6 28.1 29.8 32.1 34.8 38.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.9 57.0 58.1 59.2 61.4 63.1 64.3 64.5 63.6 60.9 56.5 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 8 8 13 20 25 29 31 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 25 22 32 43 54 66 44 32 36 20 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. -1. -12. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 7. 14. 13. -0. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 17. 27. 35. 42. 51. 59. 53. 30. 33. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% Logistic: 1.0% 3.5% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7% 6.1% 13.2% 25.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 5.8% Consensus: 0.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 4.5% 17.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 43 52 62 70 77 86 94 88 65 68 67 66 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 41 50 60 68 75 84 92 86 63 66 65 64 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 38 47 57 65 72 81 89 83 60 63 62 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 40 50 58 65 74 82 76 53 56 55 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT