* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 35 37 41 49 58 66 73 81 91 96 89 78 77 77 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 35 37 41 49 58 66 73 81 91 96 89 78 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 36 40 47 55 64 77 91 91 74 55 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 12 7 10 4 5 8 24 48 49 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 2 1 -1 -1 -2 0 6 5 10 9 8 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 186 190 196 172 156 156 129 83 146 202 209 222 207 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.4 28.9 27.8 26.3 22.3 19.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 145 156 161 164 160 154 158 152 138 124 96 85 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 133 135 145 149 149 141 133 136 134 128 118 91 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 9 9 5 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 57 57 60 60 60 59 57 54 46 39 43 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 15 17 19 21 23 29 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 50 41 41 46 31 26 12 -8 27 65 132 33 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 17 15 14 13 39 17 43 36 69 78 74 38 33 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 0 2 4 5 1 -2 4 8 19 38 -78 -85 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1274 1157 1046 950 865 769 793 886 1024 1179 1301 1293 1181 855 1075 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.2 30.8 32.8 36.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.9 56.1 57.3 58.4 60.7 62.6 64.2 64.9 64.7 63.0 59.7 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 9 14 23 32 36 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 31 23 25 35 57 63 49 37 36 38 20 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -7. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 6. 14. 21. 19. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 46. 56. 61. 54. 44. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 53.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 7.4% 5.5% 2.6% 7.5% 9.8% 17.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 3.3% 7.0% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% 4.2% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 3.6% 5.6% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 35 35 37 41 49 58 66 73 81 91 96 89 78 77 77 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 41 49 58 66 73 81 91 96 89 78 77 77 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 37 45 54 62 69 77 87 92 85 74 73 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 39 48 56 63 71 81 86 79 68 67 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT