* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 52 58 68 77 86 95 103 105 108 97 92 96 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 52 58 68 77 86 95 103 105 108 97 92 96 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 52 59 69 82 94 103 106 104 99 80 70 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 4 4 3 3 2 2 8 19 43 55 59 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 8 3 7 4 5 14 14 SHEAR DIR 203 204 185 174 178 199 199 284 329 342 186 226 223 230 222 208 209 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.1 27.7 25.9 25.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 140 140 156 160 163 162 159 157 153 140 136 119 112 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 131 132 131 146 148 147 143 137 132 130 123 124 111 104 83 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 54 55 57 56 57 59 58 59 56 48 40 36 50 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 15 17 20 24 27 29 34 32 34 46 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 53 50 50 49 43 33 19 4 11 21 21 95 21 -20 -82 200 MB DIV 35 28 17 16 0 9 30 13 31 40 79 48 56 37 21 34 34 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 -1 3 3 8 1 2 4 9 8 0 -2 -14 73 LAND (KM) 1534 1462 1401 1296 1185 991 880 872 955 1092 1223 1277 1347 1316 1213 1066 1252 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.5 30.6 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.1 52.4 53.6 54.8 57.2 59.5 61.6 63.2 64.3 64.4 63.4 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 9 14 21 28 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 31 50 33 32 38 50 51 36 35 33 23 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13. 9. 1. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 14. 16. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 18. 28. 37. 46. 55. 63. 65. 68. 57. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 10.1% 7.6% 4.2% 9.5% 13.8% 33.5% Logistic: 2.6% 9.9% 4.8% 5.7% 3.2% 25.0% 38.1% 55.5% Bayesian: 2.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 4.4% 11.9% Consensus: 1.8% 9.4% 5.2% 4.5% 2.5% 11.8% 18.8% 33.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 48 52 58 68 77 86 95 103 105 108 97 92 96 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 48 54 64 73 82 91 99 101 104 93 88 92 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 49 59 68 77 86 94 96 99 88 83 87 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 41 51 60 69 78 86 88 91 80 75 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT