* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 77 73 65 49 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 77 73 65 49 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 76 68 60 44 32 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 13 15 20 20 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 204 200 224 226 233 261 260 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 25.1 23.9 22.9 22.1 20.9 20.5 20.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 115 102 91 83 69 65 62 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 56 53 52 47 42 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 21 20 15 9 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 30 28 17 3 -3 -2 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 42 40 25 14 3 11 10 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 5 12 1 -5 -16 -16 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 474 434 436 371 306 188 102 13 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.5 23.6 24.7 25.7 27.6 29.0 29.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.8 116.4 116.7 117.0 116.9 116.4 115.9 115.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -8. -16. -23. -30. -34. -37. -41. -45. -49. -53. -57. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -13. -22. -27. -27. -27. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -2. -10. -26. -42. -58. -68. -74. -78. -82. -85. -89. -93. -97.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.4 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##