* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 48 49 46 37 36 36 36 37 36 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 48 49 46 37 36 36 36 37 36 36 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 42 42 39 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 7 10 12 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 92 132 181 204 220 239 243 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.1 25.6 23.6 22.2 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 141 136 119 98 83 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 68 66 59 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 26 21 4 24 7 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 45 58 52 36 12 6 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 6 0 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 639 581 558 550 543 487 436 318 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.6 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.1 115.0 116.3 117.1 117.3 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 15 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 11. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.59 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 21.3% 20.8% 17.0% 11.4% 16.7% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 14.8% 6.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 12.3% 9.2% 6.7% 4.4% 6.2% 4.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##