* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 49 52 51 47 38 30 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 49 52 51 47 38 30 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 48 48 44 38 32 26 23 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 7 7 12 19 18 20 19 24 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 -7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 67 127 149 186 202 214 231 253 248 254 255 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.2 25.7 24.4 22.4 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.0 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 144 137 120 107 85 68 68 72 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 68 65 58 49 42 35 32 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 9 6 4 3 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 29 25 25 17 16 10 -19 -6 -3 18 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 31 41 42 42 11 3 3 -2 2 7 -7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 1 0 0 12 9 8 -2 -11 -24 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 611 597 564 561 582 553 517 423 362 308 249 148 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.9 23.7 25.4 26.6 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.5 112.7 113.9 115.0 116.7 117.7 118.3 118.4 118.1 117.6 116.9 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 10 10 7 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -15. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 17. 16. 12. 3. -5. -12. -15. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.79 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 22.7% 22.4% 18.6% 12.3% 17.4% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 18.9% 9.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 14.8% 10.8% 7.7% 5.2% 6.5% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##