* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 39 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 39 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 25 25 26 29 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 17 21 23 14 8 17 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 304 317 330 331 354 346 276 240 225 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 148 147 147 148 145 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 119 120 119 119 120 117 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 47 47 47 49 55 58 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -71 -69 -60 -64 -57 -16 17 22 -2 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -35 -25 -13 -21 2 -3 24 8 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 422 417 399 381 317 275 229 199 209 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.8 31.3 32.0 32.5 32.8 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.4 76.5 76.6 76.8 77.3 77.3 77.1 76.7 76.2 75.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 42 43 43 43 44 47 51 45 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 76.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.94 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.6% 8.5% 7.1% 3.9% 7.0% 6.4% 6.7% Logistic: 1.7% 3.8% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.8% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.5% 3.9% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 2.4% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/17/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 39 38 41 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 39 38 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 27 30 32 35 36 37 37 37 36 35 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 23 25 28 29 30 30 30 29 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT