* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 37 35 35 37 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 37 35 35 37 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 33 35 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 27 23 22 19 19 13 8 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 1 -1 0 -3 -2 -5 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 270 281 291 297 318 333 328 308 240 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 141 140 140 141 141 141 142 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 113 112 112 113 113 114 114 112 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 44 46 47 48 53 57 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -48 -50 -67 -70 -72 -74 -34 0 0 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -5 -21 -38 -18 -26 -13 0 25 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 385 395 390 386 366 328 292 288 288 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.7 75.6 75.6 75.6 75.8 76.0 76.0 75.7 75.0 74.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 31 31 30 30 32 35 38 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 75.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.08 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 8.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 7.9% Logistic: 1.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 37 37 35 35 37 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 39 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 35 33 33 35 38 38 39 38 36 35 35 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 32 30 30 32 35 35 36 35 33 32 32 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 24 26 29 29 30 29 27 26 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT