* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 38 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 66 70 74 82 87 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 38 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 66 70 74 82 87 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 39 38 39 42 47 52 59 66 73 80 88 97 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 21 18 14 11 8 6 4 5 5 3 4 5 2 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 0 -3 -1 0 6 4 2 4 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 269 273 282 288 301 290 288 323 344 314 303 288 277 124 157 117 144 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 123 127 129 130 132 134 139 143 149 152 151 160 161 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 116 121 122 124 127 129 134 137 141 142 140 147 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 59 58 55 56 53 56 57 60 59 60 61 60 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 35 48 53 59 56 48 50 43 42 44 50 50 38 39 22 200 MB DIV -17 -12 21 19 1 -14 0 19 -6 22 -4 12 11 28 2 42 25 700-850 TADV 3 8 7 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1673 1809 1946 2081 2138 1936 1735 1559 1447 1326 1175 1077 896 757 638 564 520 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.1 35.4 36.7 38.0 40.7 43.3 46.0 48.6 51.1 53.4 55.5 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 7 15 18 11 24 27 28 43 53 33 37 47 79 75 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 32.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 2.2% 6.0% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 2.0% 9.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 38 38 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 66 70 74 82 87 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 46 50 53 57 61 65 69 73 81 86 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 37 40 44 48 51 55 59 63 67 71 79 84 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 35 39 43 46 50 54 58 62 66 74 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT