* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 47 44 42 39 36 37 37 38 34 30 27 25 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 55 50 47 44 42 39 36 37 37 38 34 30 27 25 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 43 40 36 34 33 32 32 30 28 25 23 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 4 8 10 11 13 17 21 26 29 33 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 5 7 3 2 1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 13 347 353 288 304 270 258 245 252 263 250 240 234 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 130 127 131 129 128 129 130 124 124 126 129 124 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 24 22 24 22 23 23 23 25 31 34 35 37 39 44 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -1 -2 4 18 33 46 50 47 25 17 17 6 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -13 -16 -18 -17 -43 -7 24 32 8 1 -2 19 -10 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 6 0 -1 1 8 4 4 5 6 5 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1309 1404 1506 1611 1825 2054 2031 1790 1549 1338 1161 989 844 710 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.7 127.9 130.4 132.9 135.4 137.7 140.0 142.0 143.7 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 1 5 1 1 2 4 0 0 2 5 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -18. -17. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 123.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##