* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 38 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 64 67 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 39 38 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 64 67 71 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 42 42 40 41 44 48 54 60 66 71 75 80 84 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 22 16 13 11 8 7 2 7 8 7 7 3 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 5 2 0 -3 -2 3 4 0 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 269 279 292 292 301 289 288 332 303 297 296 268 291 194 226 201 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 127 129 131 127 135 143 149 150 148 151 160 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 120 120 121 123 126 122 130 137 143 143 139 141 147 146 147 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 60 57 56 53 55 60 60 61 62 63 65 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 33 38 53 60 60 53 48 50 44 49 51 52 45 27 27 200 MB DIV -2 -22 -14 18 17 -6 -16 7 2 16 15 17 17 9 14 1 35 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 -6 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 0 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1572 1708 1845 1981 2118 1977 1769 1585 1454 1368 1201 1074 951 779 658 593 584 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.3 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.8 37.1 39.7 42.4 45.0 47.6 50.1 52.5 54.7 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 10 14 14 17 19 24 50 41 39 36 41 73 75 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 31.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 5.1% 15.1% 39.7% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.8% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 5.2% 18.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 40 39 38 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 64 67 71 74 76 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 37 40 44 49 53 56 59 62 65 69 72 74 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 35 38 42 47 51 54 57 60 63 67 70 72 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 33 37 42 46 49 52 55 58 62 65 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT