* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 59 54 48 45 43 40 36 32 27 25 22 23 23 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 59 54 48 45 43 40 36 32 27 25 22 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 63 61 58 54 50 48 46 43 41 37 33 29 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 8 9 6 6 8 12 18 19 23 26 27 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 3 3 5 3 1 -1 -3 0 1 0 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 15 23 353 342 336 308 272 251 241 246 245 244 235 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 131 129 127 131 126 127 127 122 120 119 122 123 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 24 24 23 23 24 23 24 25 31 35 40 41 40 44 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 13 12 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -3 4 7 15 34 43 50 60 49 53 26 22 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -14 -11 -25 -10 -22 -28 11 27 30 16 -21 9 12 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 2 5 -1 -3 9 14 12 9 10 10 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 1247 1336 1427 1522 1723 1943 2135 1893 1662 1474 1320 1170 1026 890 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.6 124.6 125.7 126.9 129.3 131.8 134.4 136.7 138.9 140.7 142.2 143.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 3 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -20. -22. -25. -29. -33. -38. -40. -43. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.9 122.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 759.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 4.1% 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##