* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 51 43 38 33 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 51 43 38 33 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 48 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 27 33 42 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 5 11 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 223 211 196 199 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 23.0 22.2 19.6 15.3 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 99 95 86 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 92 89 81 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -53.4 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 44 43 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 25 28 27 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 84 128 145 126 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 73 54 42 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -14 -47 -40 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 871 882 1029 1250 1223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 40.7 43.0 45.8 48.5 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 46.2 43.2 39.6 36.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 35 37 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -10. -17. -22. -28. -34. -41. -49. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 6. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -23. -27. -33. -41. -44. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.3 49.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 51 43 38 33 30 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 48 40 35 30 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 42 34 29 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT