* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 21 19 18 20 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 21 19 18 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 24 24 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 25 27 27 29 26 22 22 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 257 260 273 285 283 305 308 315 319 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 146 146 145 143 142 143 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 115 116 116 114 114 112 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 5 5 6 5 8 7 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 52 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -34 -46 -49 -47 -80 -81 -80 -60 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 3 14 -7 -9 -9 -23 -17 -13 -9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 142 157 171 176 183 183 171 165 160 160 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.5 78.3 78.2 78.1 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.5 78.5 78.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 31 32 32 30 29 28 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 78.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.03 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.10 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 21 19 18 20 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 31 29 26 25 24 23 23 20 18 17 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 27 25 22 21 20 19 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 21 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT