* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 61 58 53 49 44 44 43 42 40 38 35 29 23 20 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 61 58 53 49 44 44 43 42 40 38 35 29 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 58 56 52 48 44 40 38 37 36 34 31 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 3 7 6 5 1 6 7 10 22 26 36 40 37 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 5 7 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 0 -6 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 202 137 137 356 23 29 27 253 293 267 234 227 233 232 248 248 273 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.0 25.0 25.4 24.8 25.1 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 125 127 130 126 124 125 123 113 113 116 110 114 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 35 31 29 27 26 24 24 25 27 28 32 34 39 44 43 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 16 15 13 15 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 14 6 -1 1 8 17 39 38 49 55 54 55 35 8 -26 200 MB DIV -9 -14 -17 -25 -28 -12 -12 -28 -12 17 26 35 10 -10 -19 -34 -49 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 1 11 19 22 27 15 0 -2 LAND (KM) 890 953 1017 1102 1176 1343 1541 1745 1953 2111 1881 1676 1499 1364 1209 1058 941 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.3 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.1 120.8 121.8 122.7 124.9 127.3 129.7 132.1 134.6 136.8 138.8 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 0. -4. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -7. -12. -16. -21. -21. -22. -23. -25. -27. -30. -36. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.2 119.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 745.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 4.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##