* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 60 57 52 48 44 43 43 42 37 35 32 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 60 57 52 48 44 43 43 42 37 35 32 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 61 57 51 47 43 39 37 36 33 29 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 6 5 2 7 6 0 7 15 20 23 28 31 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 2 0 2 -3 -3 0 3 3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 193 193 193 188 161 35 36 42 159 284 264 246 233 247 258 259 257 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.0 26.5 26.0 26.2 25.7 26.0 25.7 24.7 24.9 25.2 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 123 124 123 129 124 126 121 123 120 109 112 115 107 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 43 40 35 32 30 27 27 28 30 34 37 42 47 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 10 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -15 -4 3 5 8 -7 -9 4 24 45 38 41 34 46 29 12 200 MB DIV 8 -10 0 -11 -20 -10 -15 -17 -20 10 25 14 25 8 4 -5 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 7 4 16 19 27 16 18 14 11 LAND (KM) 824 834 844 886 929 1074 1237 1430 1631 1851 2046 2038 1840 1658 1490 1326 1199 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.4 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.8 119.0 119.5 120.0 121.7 123.8 126.2 128.6 131.1 133.3 135.3 137.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -15. -18. -23. -27. -31. -32. -32. -33. -38. -40. -43. -43. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.2 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 724.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##