* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 52 54 59 69 72 71 61 46 38 30 25 22 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 52 54 59 69 72 71 61 46 38 30 25 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 49 49 54 58 58 54 46 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 29 27 24 25 20 18 16 29 44 31 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 -1 -5 -2 3 9 21 10 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 217 203 198 223 221 227 217 228 199 189 176 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.8 26.1 23.7 20.0 13.8 12.7 12.5 11.6 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 133 136 119 103 87 74 72 71 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 121 117 119 107 96 82 72 70 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -53.0 -51.2 -49.3 -48.4 -47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 1.3 3.0 2.5 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 53 57 56 59 58 60 59 55 63 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 22 22 22 24 30 34 37 34 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 36 38 32 3 64 182 168 195 206 168 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 60 77 68 13 41 74 70 60 62 59 -7 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 24 16 9 12 10 20 53 54 -49 -85 -66 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1661 1733 1815 1707 1567 1245 930 1015 1464 1009 731 542 450 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.5 29.9 31.3 32.6 35.6 39.8 45.1 50.2 54.9 58.9 62.3 65.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.6 52.9 53.1 53.0 52.9 51.1 46.6 40.1 32.9 25.5 18.3 11.2 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 22 32 36 34 30 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 12 7 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -31. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 11. 17. 21. 17. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 24. 27. 26. 16. 1. -7. -15. -20. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.1 52.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 51 52 54 59 69 72 71 61 46 38 30 25 22 22 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 50 52 57 67 70 69 59 44 36 28 23 20 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 45 47 52 62 65 64 54 39 31 23 18 15 15 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 43 53 56 55 45 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT