* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 46 50 53 56 56 51 36 26 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 46 50 53 56 56 51 36 26 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 40 40 41 42 47 48 45 41 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 40 29 26 25 19 21 21 33 44 51 40 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 -3 -5 0 7 4 9 13 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 216 216 202 191 243 228 236 196 202 206 201 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 25.8 22.7 16.6 13.3 12.5 12.0 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 138 137 134 133 117 96 78 74 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 123 120 118 118 106 89 74 71 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -53.3 -52.1 -50.3 -48.6 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 57 56 56 59 59 55 57 53 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 22 21 20 22 22 22 18 15 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 18 17 43 46 19 30 120 165 183 162 160 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 44 71 85 75 4 68 76 94 69 75 39 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 21 22 18 7 15 20 29 -17 -120 -148 -75 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1622 1668 1727 1801 1660 1367 1017 827 1076 1454 939 679 682 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.6 28.9 30.2 31.5 34.4 37.9 42.2 46.8 51.7 56.2 60.2 64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.5 53.6 52.8 49.7 44.8 38.6 31.5 24.2 16.7 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 18 25 30 33 33 29 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 15 16 11 9 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -13. -21. -27. -33. -40. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -10. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 11. -4. -14. -13. -22. -28. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.3 52.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 46 50 53 56 56 51 36 26 27 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 45 49 52 55 55 50 35 25 26 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 41 45 48 51 51 46 31 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 38 41 44 44 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT