* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 43 43 43 42 44 40 34 30 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 43 43 43 42 44 40 34 30 25 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 29 29 30 30 33 37 40 44 47 52 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 29 33 36 36 29 20 17 19 23 24 35 37 31 19 25 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 5 2 1 0 -1 -4 -1 -5 3 3 7 2 4 14 8 SHEAR DIR 214 216 220 218 210 214 200 239 225 239 212 230 223 214 213 171 122 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.4 27.9 26.6 23.4 18.3 13.5 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 140 143 139 130 137 124 100 81 73 69 68 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 125 126 129 122 114 120 111 91 77 70 67 65 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.3 -54.0 -52.1 -50.4 -47.7 -45.4 -44.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 2.0 2.9 3.1 3.3 2.0 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 52 49 50 55 58 59 65 64 61 58 59 65 72 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 18 21 20 18 16 19 18 18 21 21 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -1 5 13 32 48 30 -3 52 128 104 160 208 295 371 395 200 MB DIV 76 65 42 27 39 41 54 20 87 54 93 90 85 69 77 29 8 700-850 TADV 19 17 13 8 13 17 7 5 13 36 27 29 -83 -78 -13 -5 25 LAND (KM) 1648 1619 1600 1591 1594 1646 1697 1458 1131 823 879 1285 1307 1059 937 821 725 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.4 28.5 30.9 33.4 36.6 40.6 45.2 50.2 54.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.1 51.7 52.3 52.9 54.0 54.4 53.8 51.4 47.3 41.9 35.4 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 15 22 28 32 29 21 15 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 33 27 23 18 7 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 14. 12. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -25. -32. -35. -37. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. -0. -3. -7. -4. -6. -6. -3. -3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 8. 8. 7. 9. 5. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 50.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 37 43 43 43 42 44 40 34 30 25 24 23 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 36 42 42 42 41 43 39 33 29 24 23 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 39 39 39 38 40 36 30 26 21 20 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 33 33 33 32 34 30 24 20 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT