* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 79 84 88 91 89 81 73 68 58 49 59 60 58 58 56 V (KT) LAND 65 73 79 84 88 91 89 81 73 68 58 49 59 60 58 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 79 82 84 84 82 79 74 70 62 57 62 68 65 62 59 Storm Type TROP N/A N/A TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 N/A N/A 8 N/A 5 7 11 9 10 N/A N/A 6 1 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 N/A N/A -4 N/A -5 -2 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A -1 1 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 212 N/A N/A 120 N/A 127 138 121 117 81 N/A N/A 124 75 252 284 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.9 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 136 135 134 131 131 131 132 134 130 133 126 122 121 115 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 N/A N/A -52.0 N/A -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 N/A N/A 0.5 N/A 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 N/A N/A 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 N/A N/A 6 N/A 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 N/A N/A 58 N/A 51 46 37 31 27 N/A N/A 22 24 25 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 LOST LOST 23 LOST 24 25 24 23 24 LOST LOST 22 23 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 3 N/A N/A -12 N/A -19 -5 16 31 41 N/A N/A 43 49 58 59 65 200 MB DIV 43 N/A N/A 52 N/A 0 3 2 -37 -48 N/A N/A 14 -6 -8 0 20 700-850 TADV -2 N/A N/A -2 N/A 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A -1 0 7 16 24 LAND (KM) 1110 1100 1094 1084 1075 1052 1071 1140 1258 1414 1590 1796 1999 2158 1956 1787 1621 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.1 119.5 119.7 119.9 120.1 120.6 121.5 122.9 124.9 127.2 129.7 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 4 5 8 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 13 14 11 8 4 3 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. -3. -10. 2. 3. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 24. 16. 8. 3. -7. -16. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 999.9 17.2 to 1.6 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9999.0 -30.0 to 145.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 742.0 to -74.0 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 11.3% 3.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 12.7% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##