* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 65 71 81 86 84 78 71 68 63 65 64 63 61 58 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 65 71 81 86 84 78 71 68 63 65 64 63 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 62 67 74 78 78 74 70 68 66 65 66 65 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 2 5 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 4 3 4 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 3 2 2 3 11 9 2 SHEAR DIR 59 144 192 224 109 145 158 133 103 110 72 70 83 104 228 245 254 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 146 144 142 139 137 134 131 131 134 131 133 127 122 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 57 53 51 45 36 30 26 22 22 23 26 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 22 23 24 26 26 25 23 24 22 23 23 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 2 -2 -2 -13 -14 3 13 33 43 48 55 58 65 64 46 200 MB DIV 35 44 41 15 45 55 11 -8 -2 -14 -46 1 -19 8 -13 -13 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 1 7 21 21 LAND (KM) 1083 1099 1098 1093 1092 1067 1055 1068 1130 1232 1382 1590 1798 1996 2155 1986 1829 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.1 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.1 120.4 120.8 121.6 122.9 124.8 127.3 129.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 8 10 12 11 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 14 14 17 17 14 10 5 2 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 7. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 26. 36. 41. 39. 33. 26. 23. 18. 20. 19. 18. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 13.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 13.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.3% 56.2% 55.7% 45.5% 30.6% 51.8% 55.9% 29.6% Logistic: 43.8% 57.7% 51.6% 41.7% 23.6% 26.3% 9.2% 2.9% Bayesian: 7.3% 22.6% 4.4% 2.2% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 26.4% 45.5% 37.3% 29.8% 19.3% 26.4% 21.8% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##