* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 54 60 66 77 84 85 83 80 76 75 73 72 71 69 67 V (KT) LAND 40 46 54 60 66 77 84 85 83 80 76 75 73 72 71 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 58 64 74 80 82 81 77 75 73 72 71 68 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 3 2 9 6 5 4 9 6 7 5 6 3 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 2 8 12 4 SHEAR DIR 57 56 121 213 290 100 121 122 78 94 119 59 53 55 100 290 300 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.6 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 154 150 146 142 140 138 136 134 134 130 134 129 127 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 55 56 58 56 51 43 36 33 29 27 25 27 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 21 23 24 25 25 24 24 25 24 24 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 8 4 0 -5 -20 -23 -14 15 35 40 37 39 48 51 66 200 MB DIV 36 47 46 42 22 82 15 -9 -12 26 -42 -16 -12 6 -11 -8 21 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 5 5 11 15 LAND (KM) 1097 1111 1136 1133 1136 1129 1114 1110 1147 1236 1355 1511 1703 1900 2083 2094 1904 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.3 118.2 118.9 119.5 120.2 120.6 120.9 121.5 122.6 124.2 126.2 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 4 6 9 10 11 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 31 21 17 17 21 19 14 9 5 4 2 6 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 20. 26. 37. 44. 45. 43. 40. 36. 35. 33. 32. 31. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 116.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.84 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 52.6% 51.4% 40.4% 27.1% 51.4% 57.4% 48.4% Logistic: 36.6% 59.9% 53.1% 42.7% 27.6% 36.1% 15.7% 5.7% Bayesian: 8.6% 38.5% 10.8% 3.8% 5.9% 7.1% 2.6% 0.1% Consensus: 22.8% 50.3% 38.4% 29.0% 20.2% 31.5% 25.2% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##