* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 73 67 58 53 50 46 42 41 42 43 44 45 43 45 V (KT) LAND 75 62 63 60 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 56 59 47 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 15 20 25 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 179 196 218 213 216 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.5 30.0 30.6 28.3 28.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 151 167 173 149 152 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 4 3 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 62 56 53 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 20 14 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 46 54 50 44 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 47 79 62 38 48 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 6 21 17 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -8 4 37 -73 -266 -537 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.9 26.3 27.9 29.4 32.2 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.9 111.4 111.5 111.5 110.5 109.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 10 20 26 10 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -7. -13. -17. -22. -24. -25. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -8. -17. -22. -25. -29. -33. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. -32. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.5 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 22.6% 21.7% 17.8% 12.5% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.7% 7.4% 6.0% 4.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##