* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 53 51 49 45 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 53 51 49 45 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 53 51 48 47 48 47 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 43 35 27 19 4 9 7 12 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 213 205 199 200 174 333 36 21 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.9 25.7 24.8 23.9 24.2 22.7 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 133 127 120 108 101 95 98 90 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 105 101 95 87 83 79 82 77 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 2 1 5 4 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 57 53 53 51 54 54 56 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 27 26 24 22 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 37 18 0 4 -14 -34 -49 -27 -24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 38 27 6 21 -1 -18 -39 -38 -2 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 7 0 -2 1 -2 -2 -2 5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 506 460 414 370 326 280 253 264 302 230 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.7 38.0 38.4 38.7 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.8 41.8 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 68.5 67.5 65.9 63.9 61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 22 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -27. -33. -34. -34. -33. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -23. -31. -41. -50. -52. -55. -58. -59. -59. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.3 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 53 51 49 45 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 52 50 46 38 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 49 45 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 46 42 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT