* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 55 49 42 40 35 37 40 43 44 44 46 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 45 42 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 45 38 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 7 11 10 11 13 20 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 3 1 -2 0 -3 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 81 99 76 87 98 116 216 231 242 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.8 27.8 30.1 28.7 28.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 162 162 161 154 143 167 152 151 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 81 82 81 74 65 56 49 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 14 14 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 53 58 59 30 36 27 7 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 147 102 97 87 89 52 51 22 38 4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 4 4 0 -4 3 7 2 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 239 217 224 254 98 -7 30 -51 -177 -355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.0 22.1 24.4 27.0 29.3 31.5 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.1 106.6 107.3 108.1 109.6 110.8 111.6 111.7 111.2 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 29 26 22 18 11 4 22 13 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -11. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 20. 14. 7. 5. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.93 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 43.5% 30.9% 23.0% 15.2% 31.1% 31.6% 40.5% Logistic: 19.8% 55.6% 37.7% 26.0% 4.6% 26.6% 2.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 4.0% 17.1% 13.1% 5.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 13.0% 38.7% 27.2% 18.0% 6.7% 19.8% 11.3% 13.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##