* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 44 47 48 48 45 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 44 47 48 48 45 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 39 37 37 37 36 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 26 20 14 8 10 15 27 41 52 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 3 2 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 239 238 238 237 223 239 238 222 220 245 263 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.4 24.6 24.3 22.1 19.9 18.1 16.0 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 128 124 124 117 109 107 86 66 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -55.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 34 34 35 36 40 46 48 45 45 47 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 11 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -29 -46 -63 -67 -36 -7 -12 -12 -5 11 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 20 0 2 0 18 33 26 19 53 16 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 17 13 5 6 8 8 16 9 46 2 -28 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 600 751 885 1020 1237 1428 1625 1874 1489 1184 1125 480 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.2 30.2 32.0 33.8 35.9 38.7 42.3 45.7 48.7 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.9 162.0 163.1 163.9 164.7 165.6 165.9 165.5 163.7 160.2 154.2 145.8 137.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 10 13 19 25 30 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -20. -30. -44. -48. -54. -63. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -10. -24. -40. -58. -68. -78. -91. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 160.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##