* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 51 47 43 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 54 51 47 43 36 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 53 50 44 44 45 45 43 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 45 41 36 28 7 4 13 16 22 21 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 227 212 203 202 200 292 27 44 45 32 351 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 25.8 25.1 24.6 23.9 24.5 22.6 21.1 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 132 127 121 108 102 99 95 100 89 83 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 104 101 96 87 83 82 80 84 77 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 2 2 2 5 4 6 5 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 60 59 54 52 49 50 51 54 54 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 29 27 25 23 21 17 14 9 11 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 18 41 17 3 17 -25 -36 -20 -24 31 90 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 37 27 23 4 -2 -15 -29 -31 -15 20 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 7 5 0 0 -3 -2 0 3 16 55 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 519 483 447 409 371 302 264 253 284 300 264 263 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.5 37.8 38.1 38.4 39.0 39.4 39.7 40.2 40.8 41.7 42.7 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.5 68.6 68.9 69.2 69.4 69.1 68.5 67.2 65.4 63.4 61.1 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 2 3 4 6 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 16 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -18. -24. -32. -31. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -24. -33. -43. -54. -56. -54. -58. -60. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.2 68.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 54 51 47 43 36 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 55 52 48 44 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 51 47 43 36 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 43 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT