* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 55 54 54 52 47 45 41 34 29 23 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 55 54 54 52 47 45 41 34 29 23 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 56 54 52 48 43 42 44 46 46 43 41 40 43 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 42 44 50 58 55 40 21 19 11 3 12 10 10 8 6 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 0 -6 -3 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 236 232 233 233 220 214 238 221 347 24 30 23 344 360 309 285 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.0 25.3 24.1 22.3 20.5 21.2 23.2 24.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 146 145 144 133 121 113 109 104 95 85 79 81 91 102 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 113 118 115 113 104 95 89 87 83 78 73 69 71 77 83 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 1 1 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 3 4 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 41 45 47 50 48 43 47 46 45 43 41 46 54 57 56 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 27 29 35 37 34 32 29 27 26 25 24 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -3 2 -6 -15 -1 11 23 1 2 -12 -21 -9 -1 -10 -20 -11 -18 200 MB DIV 50 84 55 44 32 39 18 11 3 -3 -11 -32 -41 -2 17 16 7 700-850 TADV 13 -5 -11 5 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 3 5 9 11 23 19 LAND (KM) 22 131 217 226 243 229 224 203 190 166 148 139 132 226 258 271 333 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.5 37.0 37.4 37.8 38.4 38.8 39.1 39.3 39.6 40.0 40.4 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 74.4 73.3 72.8 72.4 72.1 71.9 71.7 71.5 71.3 70.8 70.0 68.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 8 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 17 17 21 15 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. -17. -17. -18. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 6. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -14. -21. -26. -32. -38. -40. -41. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.9 75.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 55 54 54 52 47 45 41 34 29 23 17 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 52 50 45 43 39 32 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 49 47 42 40 36 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 44 42 37 35 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT